In this midyear edition of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, look back at what caught them off guard in the first half of 2026, before next week’s official second-half outlook.
They start with sports: the US men’s national team’s surprising exit from the World Cup round of 16 against Belgium. From there it’s on to markets, where crude oil nearly doubled overnight, a six-standard-deviation move, only for stocks to stage one of the fastest, most aggressive rallies in market history just weeks later, even with a war raging overseas. The S&P 500 sits up about 10% at the midpoint, technology is up roughly 33%, yet the Magnificent 7 is actually down close to 4% on a cap-weighted basis, a split that has fueled an unexpectedly strong broadening out into small caps (up 22-23%) and mid caps (up in the mid-teens).
Ryan and Sonu also flag how communication services, tech’s usual travel companion, ended up the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 while technology led. Overseas, most developed and emerging markets have outpaced the US so far this year. And on the policy front, the biggest whiplash of all: The market began 2026 pricing in two Fed rate cuts, and now prices in a 100% probability of a hike, even as Ryan and Sonu maintain the Fed is unlikely to pull the trigger just yet. Their takeaway heading into the back half: Expect more volatility and more headlines in this midterm year, but for the bull market to remain intact.
Key Takeaways
- The USMNT’s round-of-16 exit to Belgium was a first-half curveball, a reminder that path dependency, not just talent, shapes outcomes in both soccer and markets.
- Oil roughly doubled in a six-standard-deviation move before reversing back toward $70 a barrel, yet stocks staged one of history’s fastest, sharpest rallies despite an overseas war.
- Technology surged about 33% while the Magnificent 7 fell nearly 4%, driving an unexpectedly strong broadening into small caps (+22-23%) and mid caps (+mid-teens), with communication services lagging as the S&P 500’s worst sector.
- The market has swung from pricing two Fed rate cuts at the start of the year to pricing a 100% probability of a hike, driven by sticky, non-energy inflation, though Ryan and Sonu still don’t think the Fed is ready to hike.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Midyear Setup
0:22 — Soccer Upset and Path Dependency
1:48 — Oil Doubles Then Stocks Rip Higher
2:36 — Tech Leads While Mag 7 Lags
4:55 — Broadening Out into Small and Mid Caps
5:50 — Hot Inflation and Rising Bond Yields
7:05 — Tech Versus Communication Services Split
7:45 — Markets Pivot from Cuts to Hikes
9:23 — Planning For Volatility Ahead
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
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